Headline: Trump's Election Bets Surge to $43 Million in Offshore Accounts
A mysterious group of accounts on the cryptocurrency prediction exchange Polymarket has significantly increased its bets on former President Donald Trump’s success in the upcoming elections. As of Monday morning, one of these accounts increased its potential earnings to approximately $43 million from last Friday's $30 million. According to a source who wished to remain anonymous, these accounts are believed to belong to non-American individuals or a single non-American entity.
The spike in bets on Trump's victory contrasts with public opinion polls, which indicate a close race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite these polls, Trump’s odds on Polymarket have risen to 63%, while Harris remains at 37%. This discrepancy has sparked debate among social media users and prediction market experts; some question whether large bets could be influencing market odds, while others discuss whether prediction markets might be ahead of traditional polling methods.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam expressed concerns about election betting in a speech to a Wall Street trade group on Monday. Highlighting the problematic nature of this practice, Behnam suggested that Congress should address the legality of election-related betting to avoid endangering democracy and elections.
The increase in betting has also led to speculation about whether prominent Americans are involved, although the source confirmed the accounts in question are based overseas and affirmed Polymarket’s major investors. Four accounts known as Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie currently hold stocks worth approximately $43 million in total, with each share representing one dollar. In the presidential race, a total of $1.1 billion has been wagered on Polymarket.
Polymarket operates by pricing shares according to the probability of an outcome. For instance, if Trump's chances are priced at 60 cents, this suggests a 60% likelihood of winning as per market sentiment. A victory for Trump would result in a $1 payout per share, while a loss would render the shares worthless.
Despite the increased activity and its implications, Polymarket has not commented on the size of the bets, nor has the CFTC made a statement on the matter. Historically, Americans have faced significant restrictions on online betting on U.S. elections, and the CFTC has denied applications that would permit such wagers.